Publications

• Ferguson, D. B., G. B. Frisvold, C. Maxwell, and M. A. Crimmins, 2024: How Are Weather and Climate Products and Decision Support Systems Used in Wildland Fire Decision Making in the US Southwest?. Wea. Climate Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-24-0069.1.

• Crimmins, M. A., C. Maxwell, D. B. Ferguson, and G. B. Frisvold, 2024: Burn Period: A use-inspired metric to track wildfire risk across Arizona and New Mexico in the southwest U.S. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0067.1.

• Frisvold GB, Zhang N, Crimmins MA, Ferguson D, Maxwell C. Demand for Information for Wildland Fire Management. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(11):1364. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15111364

• McKellar, T., M.A. Crimmins, M. Schaap and C. Rasmussen. 2023. Defining the Multiscalar Index Timescale – Soil Water Depth Continuum for the Southwestern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres. http://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039348.

• Hoy, D., Granillo, R.L., Boeman, L., McMahan, B., Crimmins, M.A., 2023. Data aggregation, ML ready datasets, and an API: leveraging diverse data to create enhanced characterizations of monsoon flood risk. Frontiers in Climate, Volume 5 - 2023 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1107363  

• Guido, Z., McMahan, B., Hoy, D., Larsen, C., Delgado, B., Granillo, R. L., III, & Crimmins, M. 2022. Public Engagement on Weather and Climate with a Monsoon Fantasy Forecasting Game, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.  https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-22-0003.1/BAMS-D-22-0003.1.xml

• Greene, C., H. Wilmer, D. Ferguson, M.A. Crimmins, M. McClaran. 2022. Using scale and human agency to frame ranchers' discussions about socio-ecological change and resilience. Journal of Rural Studies. Vol 96, Dec 2022, Pgs. 217-226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.11.001.  

• Crimmins, T.M. and M.A. Crimmins. 2022. Large-scale citizen science programs can support ecological and climate change assessments. Environmental Research Letters 17, 065011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac72b7.

• Bradford, John.B., Shriver, R.K., Robles, M.D., McCauley, L.A., Woolley, T.J., Andrews, C.A., Crimmins, M., Bell, D.M., 2021. Tree mortality response to drought-density interactions suggests opportunities to enhance drought resistance. Journal of Applied Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14073

• Khatri-Chhetri P, Hendryx SM, Hartfield KA, Crimmins MA, Leeuwen WJDv, Kane VR. Assessing Vegetation Response to Multi-Scalar Drought across the Mojave, Sonoran, Chihuahuan Deserts and Apache Highlands in the Southwest United States. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(6):1103. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13061103

• McMahan, B., R. Granillo, B. Delgado, M. Herrera, & M. Crimmins. 2021.Curating and Visualizing Dense Networks of Monsoon Precipitation Data: Integrating Computer Science into Forward Looking Climate Services Development.  Frontiers in Climate-Climate Services. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.602573. 

• Crimmins, M.A., McMahan, B., Holmgren, W.F., Woodard, G., 2021. Tracking precipitation patterns across a western U.S. metropolitan area using volunteer observers: RainLog.Org. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7067. 

• Uhlman, K., C. Eastoe, Z. Guido, M.A. Crimmins, A. Purkey-Deller, & S. Eden. 2020. Assessing the Vulnerability of an Aquifer to Climate Variability through Community Participation in Arivaca, Arizona. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education. Issue 170, pages x-xx. August 2020. 

• Luketich, A.M., Papuga, S.A., Crimmins, M.A., 2019. Ecohydrology of urban trees under passive and active irrigation in a semiarid city. PLOS ONE 14, e0224804. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224804

• Crimmins, T.M., Crimmins, M.A., 2019. Biologically-Relevant Trends in Springtime Temperatures Across the United States. Geophysical Research Letters n/a. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085251

• Crimmins, M. A., & Crimmins, T. M., 2019. Does an early spring indicate an early summer? Relationships between intraseasonal growing degree day thresholds. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 124. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005297

• Mohamed Abd Salam EL-Vilaly, Kamel Didan, Stuart E. Marsh, M.A. Crimmins and Armando Barreto Munoz, 2018. Characterizing Drought Effects on Vegetation Productivity in the Four Corners Region of the US Southwest. Sustainability 2018, 10(5), 1643; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051643.

• Crimmins, T. M., M. A. Crimmins, K. L. Gerst, A. H. Rosemartin, and J. F. Weltzin, 2017: USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions. PLOS ONE, 12, e0182919, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0182919.

• Elias, E., T. S. Schrader, J. T. Abatzoglou, D. James, M. Crimmins, J. Weiss, and A. Rango, 2017: County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2040-y. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2040-y.

• Ferguson DB, Crimmins MA, Masayesva A, Meadow A, Weiss JL, Faulstich H. 2017. Drought Monitoring to Support Planning for the Hopi Tribe. Climate Assessment for the Southwest, Tucson AZ, 56pp

• Crimmins, T.M., Marsh, R.L., Switzer, J.R., Crimmins, M.A., Gerst, K.L., Rosemartin, A.H., and Weltzin, J.F., 2017, USA National Phenology Network gridded products documentation: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017–1003, 27 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171003.

• Crimmins, M.A., D. Ferguson, A. Meadow, and J. Weiss. 2017. Discerning “flavors” of drought using climate extremes indices. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0270.1

• El-Vilaly, M. A. S., K. Didan, S. E. Marsh, W. J. D. van Leeuwen, M. A. Crimmins, and A. B. Munoz, 2017: Vegetation productivity responses to drought on tribal lands in the four corners region of the Southwest USA. Frontiers of Earth Science, 1–15, doi:10.1007/s11707-017-0646-z.

• Herrmann, S.M., K. Didan, A. Barreto-Munoz and M.A. Crimmins, 2016: Divergent responses of vegetation cover in Southwestern US ecosystems to dry and wet years at different elevations. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 124005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124005. 

• Crimmins, M. A., and M. P. McClaran. 2016. Where Do Seasonal Climate Predictions Belong in the Drought Management Toolbox? Rangelands, doi:10.1016/j.rala.2016.06.004.

• Ferguson, D. B., A. Masayesva, A. M. Meadow, and M. A. Crimmins, 2016: Rain gauges to range conditions: Collaborative development of a drought information system to support local decision making. Wea. Climate Soc., doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0060.1. 

• Brugger, J., M.A. Crimmins and M. P. McClaran. 2016. Groups co-developing approaches to improve planning for drought on public lands, Part III. DroughtScape, Summer 2016. http://drought.unl.edu/portals/0/docs/DroughtScape/pdf/DS2016summer.pdf.

• Stevenson, J., M. Crimmins, J. Whitehead, J. Brugger, and C. Fraisse. 2016. Connecting climate information with practical uses: Extension and the NOAA RISA program. In: Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation, A. Parris, G. Garfin, K. Dow, R. Meyer, and S. Close, eds., Wiley, 75-98.

• Meadow, A., Z. Guido, M.A. Crimmins, J. McLeod. 2016. From principles to action: Applying the National Research Council’s principles for evfective decision support to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s watch office, Climate Services, 1 (March 2016): 12–23., doi: 10.1016/j.cliser.2016.02.002

• Weiss J, Crimmins M, Overpeck J. 2015. Developing an Event Database for Cut-off Low Climatology over Southwestern North America. In: Machine Learning and Data Mining Approaches to Climate Science, V. Lakshmanan, E. Gilleland, A. McGovern, and M. Tingley, eds., Springer, 195-204

• Crimmins MA, Ferguson DB, Weiss JL, Faulstich H. 2015. Hopi Climate: An Overview to Support Drought Monitoring and Management. Climate Assessment for the Southwest, Tucson AZ, 9pp

• Springer, A.C., D.E. Swann, and M.A. Crimmins. 2015. Climate Change Impacts on High Elevation Saguaro Range Expansion. Journal of Arid Environments 116, no. 0 (May 2015): 57–62. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.02.004.

• Shepard, C., M. G. Schaap, M. A. Crimmins, W. J.D. van Leeuwen, and C. Rasmussen. 2015.  Subsurface Soil Textural Control of Aboveground Productivity in the US Desert Southwest. Geoderma Regional 4, no. 0 (April 2015): 44–54. doi:10.1016/j.geodrs.2014.12.003.

• Brugger, J. and M. A. Crimmins. 2014. Designing Institutions to Support Local Level Climate Change Adaptation: Insights from a Case Study of the U.S. Cooperative Extension System. Weather, Climate, and Society, July 21, 2014. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00036.1.

• Williams, A., R. Seager, A. Macalady, M. Berkelhammer, M. Crimmins, T. Swetnam, A. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N. McDowell, N. Hryniw, C. Mora, T. Rahn. 2014. Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest-fire area in the southwest United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire (WF14023  Accepted 28 August 2014)

• Williams, A., R. Seager, A. Macalady, M. Berkelhammer, M. Crimmins, T. Swetnam, A. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N. McDowell, N. Hryniw, C. Mora, T. Rahn. 2014. Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand During the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwest United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, September 25, 2014. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1.

• Crimmins, T.M., C.D. Bertelsen, and M.A. Crimmins. 2013. Within-season flowering interruptions are common in the water-limited Sky Islands. International Journal of Biometeorology, DOI 10.1007/s00484-013-0745-9.

• Lackstrom, K., A. Brennan, D. Ferguson, M. Crimmins, L. Darby, K. Dow, K. Ingram, A. Meadow, H. Reges, M. Shafer, and K. Smith. 2013. The Missing Piece: Drought Impacts Monitoring. CLIMAS Workshop Report. Tucson, AZ. March 5-6, 2013. 

• Brugger, J., M. Crimmins, G. Ruyle, and M. McClaran. 2013. Ranching with Drought in the Southwest: Conditions, Challenges, and a Process to Meet the Challenges. CALS-Extension Workshop Report. Santa Rita Experimental Range, AZ. February 27-28, 2013.

• Brugger, J., Crimmins, M. 2013. The art of adaptation: Living with climate change in the rural American Southwest. Global Environ. Change, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.012

• Meadow, A., M.A. Crimmins and D. Ferguson. 2013. Field of Dreams or Dream Team?: Assessing Two Models for the Drought Impact Reporting in the Semiarid Southwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00168.1

• Crimmins, T.M., M.A. Crimmins, and C.D. Bertelsen. 2013. Temporal Patterns in Species Flowering in Sky Islands of the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion. In Merging Science and Management in a Rapidly Changing World: Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago, 593. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO.

• T. Crimmins, M.A. Crimmins, and D. Bertelsen. 2013.Spring and summer patterns in flowering onset, duration, and constancy across a water-limited gradient. American Journal of Botany. DOI: 10.3732/ajb.1200633.

• Crimmins, M.A., N. Selover, K. Cozzetto, and K. Chief. (editor: A. Meadow). 2013. Technical Review of the Navajo Nation Drought Contingency Plan - Drought Monitoring. Submitted to the Navajo Nation Water Management Branch, February 2013. 

• Meadow, A., D. Ferguson, and M. Crimmins. 2013. Helping a community develop a drought impacts reporting system. Rural Connections. January 2013. 

• Guido, Z., D. Hill, M.A. Crimmins, and D. Ferguson. 2012. Informing decisions with a climate synthesis product: implications for regional climate services. Weather, Climate, and Society.  DOI 10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00012.1. 

• Olsson, A.D., J.L. Betancourt, M.A. Crimmins, and S.E. Marsh. 2012. Constancy of local spread rates for buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare L.) in the Arizona Upland of the Sonoran Desert. Journal of Arid Environments, Volume 87, December 2012, Pages 136-143. DOI 10.1016/j.aridenv.2012.06.005.

• Brugger, J, and M.A. Crimmins. Weather, Climate, and Rural Arizona: Insights and Assessment Strategies. Technical Input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Tucson, AZ.

• Crimmins, T.M. and M.A. Crimmins. 2012. Appreciating and Archiving Present-Day Naturalists' Contributions to Science.  BioScience, 62(6):531-532. 

• Martin J., S.A. Kurc, G. Zaimes, M. Crimmins, A. Hutmacher, D. Green, Elevated air temperatures in riparian ecosystems along ephemeral streams: The role of housing density, Journal of Arid Environments, Volume 84, September 2012, Pages 9-18, ISSN 0140-1963, 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.03.019.

• Diez, J. M., Ibáñez, I., Miller-Rushing, A. J., Mazer, S. J., Crimmins, T. M., Crimmins, M. A., Bertelsen, C. D. and Inouye, D. W. 2012. Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns. Ecology Letters. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01765.x

• Dillon, G. K., Z. A. Holden, P. Morgan, M. A. Crimmins, E. K. Heyerdahl, and C. H. Luce. 2011. Both topography and climate affected forest and woodland burn severity in two regions of the western US, 1984 to 2006. Ecosphere 2(12):130. doi: 10.1890/ES11-00271.1

• Brugger, J., M.A.Crimmins, and G. Owen. 2011. Finding a place for climate science in the rural West. Rural Connections. 5:5-10.

• Holden, Z.A., C. Luce, M. Crimmins, and P. Morgan. 2011.  Wildfire extent and severity correlated with annual streamflow distribution and timing in the Pacific Northwest, USA (1984–2005). Ecohydrology. doi:10.1002/eco.257.

• T. Crimmins, M.A. Crimmins, and D. Bertelsen. 2011. Onset of summer flowering in a ‘Sky Island’ is driven by monsoon moisture. New Phytologist. DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03705.x.

• Holden, Z.A., M.A. Crimmins, S.A. Cushman, and J.S. Littell. 2011. Empirical modeling of spatial and temporal variation in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two North Idaho mountain ranges, USA. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 151:261-269. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.10.006.

• T. Crimmins, M.A. Crimmins, and D. Bertelsen. 2010. Complex responses to climate drivers in onset of spring flowering across a semi-arid elevation gradient. Journal of Ecology. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01696.x

• M.A. Crimmins. 2010. Interannual to decadal changes in extreme fire weather event frequencies across the southwestern United States. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.2184.

• Zaimes, G. and  M.A. Crimmins. 2010. Riparian Areas of the Southwest: Learning from Repeat Photographs. Journal of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Education. 39:63-69.

• Crimmins, T.M., M.A. Crimmins, D. Bertlesen. 2009. Flowering range changes across an elevation gradient in response to warming summer temperatures. Global Change Biology. 15:1141-1152 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01831.x.

• Miller, J.D.  , H.D. Safford , M.A. Crimmins and A.E. Thode. 2009. Quantitative Evidence for Increasing Forest Fire Severity in the Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascade Mountains, California and Nevada, USA. Ecosystems, 12:16-32. DOI 10.1007/s10021-008-9201-9.

• Crimmins, M.A. and T.M. Crimmins. 2008. Monitoring Plant Phenology Using Digital Repeat Photography. Environmental Management, 41: 949-958. DOI 10.1007/s00267-008-9086-6.

• Crimmins, T.M., M.A. Crimmins, D. Bertlesen, and J. Balmat. 2007. Relationships between alpha diversity of plant species in bloom and climatic variables across an elevation gradient. International Journal of Biometeorology, 52: 353-366. DOI 10.1007/s00484-007-0130-7.

• Crimmins, M.A., G. Zaimes, N. Haas, C. Jones, G. Garfin, and T. Crimmins. 2007. Changes on the Range: A Novel Exercise to Explore Interactions between Range Management Decision Making and Climate Change. Journal of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Education. 36: 76-86. (PDF, ~800K)

• Holden, Z.A., P. Morgan, M.A. Crimmins, R.K. Steinhorst, and A.M. Smith. 2007. Fire Season Precipitation Variability Influences Fire Extent and Severity in a Large Southwestern Wilderness Area. Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 34, L16708, doi:10.1029/2007GL030804 .

• Crimmins, M.A., 2006. Synoptic Climatology of Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Across the Southwest United States. International Journal of Climatology. 26:1001-1016, doiI:10.1002/joc.1300. (PDF, ~400K)

• Crimmins, M.A. and A.C. Comrie, 2004. Wildfire-Climate Interactions Across Southeast Arizona. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 13: 455-466. (PDF, ~2MB)

• Crimmins, M.A., 2004. High-Resolution Climate Monitoring on a Mountain Island: The Saguaro National Park Pilot Study. Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago II: Connecting Mountain Islands and Desert Seas. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Tucson, AZ. RMRS-P-36, pp. 176-181. (PDF, ~800K)

• Crimmins, M.A. and T.M. Crimmins, 2003. Climate Variability and Plant Response at the Santa Rita Experimental Range, Arizona. In: M.P. McClaran, P.F. Ffolliott and C.B. Edminster (Editors), Santa Rita Experimental Range: 100 Years (1903 to 2003) of Accomplishments and Contributions. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Tucson, AZ, pp. 111-115. (PDF, ~45K)

Extension Bulletins

• Crimmins, M.A.,  Z. Guido, B. McMahan. 2022. Guide to Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Bulletin, AZ2002-2022, https://extension.arizona.edu/pubs/guide-southwest-us-station-climate-summaries.

• Crimmins, M.A.,  A. Brischke, A. Hall, M. McClaran. 2022. Ranch-scale Drought Monitoring Tools for Arizona. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Bulletin, AZ1995-2022, https://extension.arizona.edu/pubs/ranch-scale-drought-monitoring-tools-arizona.

• Hawkes, K., Brugger, J., Mcclaran, M. P., Crimmins, M. A., Howery, L. D., Ruyle, G. B., … Tolleson, D. (2018). Guide to Co-Developing Drought Preparation Plans for Livestock Grazing on Southwest National Forests. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Bulletin, (az1764), 80.
  https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1764-2018.pdf

• Crimmins, M.A., M. McClaran, J. Brugger, A. Hall, D. Tolleson, A. Brischke. 2017. Rain Gauges for Range Management: Precipitation Monitoring Best Practices Guide. College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ). University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Publication AZ1751-2017, 7p.

• Crimmins, M.A., M. McClaran, J. Brugger, A. Hall, D. Tolleson. 2017. Do-it-yourself construction guide: Rugged accumulation precipitation gauge for remote monitoring. College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ). University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Publication AZ1747-2017, 12p.

• Artiola, J.F., M.A. Crimmins and M. Yoklic. 2008. Doing our Part to Help Conserve
  Arizona’s Water Resources and Reduce Global Warming by Saving Energy at Home. Arizona Cooperative Extension, AZ1485.

• Crimmins, M.A. 2007. Arizona Climate and Riparian Areas.  In: Understanding Arizona's Riparian Areas. Arizona Cooperative Extension, AZ1432.  pp.71-81.

• Crimmins, M.A. 2006. Arizona and the North American Monsoon System. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, AZ1417.

• Rogstad, A., M.A. Crimmins, G. Garfin. 2006. Climate Change and Wildfire Impacts in Southwest Forests and Woodlands. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, AZ1425.

Presentations

• "The Arizona Rainfall Roundup: Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Citizen Science", Association of Natural Resource Extension Professionals Annual Meeting, Salt Lake City, UT, May 2006. (PDF, 200K)

• “Evaluation of Climate Monitoring Needs in Southwestern National Parks: The Saguaro National Park Pilot Study” with others, 14th Conference on Applied Climatology and 84th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Seattle, WA, January 2004. (PDF, ~600K)

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