Putting it all together

-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

Take a few minutes to get your bearings

Review the big picture (don't make your analysis too narrow)

Review the general approaches to futures studies (don't forget important steps)

 

Fill in wholes in your knowledge base before you get too far.

Uncertainties and wildcards - have you thought of some?

Assumptions and ignorance - what is it you know and don't know?

Review what constitutes a good futures study.

 

Using building blocks to develop scenarios

Select the relevant possible paradigm shifts and use them as an overall guide

Cluster trends and see which few (4-6) driving forces are most useful to your situation

Consider what you don't know, identify some uncertainties, and few wildcards

Make a few (4) scenarios by mixing the driving forces in different ways to include some wildcards

 

Scenarios (useful to engage new perspectives or examples of choices)

Frequently Asked Questions about scenarios

Global Business Network approach

 

The final report

Brief is good

State assumptions and future framework (this is often neglected)

Include sufficient data to make the case but not too much to confuse the reader

Provide observations and conclusions

Give a range of possibilities rather than firm predictions

Focus on your next steps that follow from the study

 

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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell