-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
What is a scenario?
It is a story or a "scene". It describes a situation in common
terms that represents what might happen in the future. It is not a prediction,
but a way of putting a lot of ideas and possibilities together.
Why use scenarios?
They allow you to better understand possible future unknown events. If you
can think through the complexity of the scenario you can do better by thinking
"on your feet" about unexpected events. In short, it gives you more
thinking skills to move into uncharted territory.
What information do you need to build a scenario?
Lots of different information that includes the driving forces of change,
the character of the institution, and trend information. In addition, you
need possible events and wildcards not just extrapolations.
What process should you use to build scenarios?
By weaving together all the different possible trends and issues you get
a "story". The scenario should be a story and seem plausible. When
you get several scenarios that are very different and the reader believes
all have good possibilities of happening you have done a good job.
How many scenarios should be used?
Four is a good number. Two causes a contrast, three suggests one is best
and the other two are extreme, and more than about 6-7 are too many to manage
and understand.
How long is a scenario?
About a page is good, they can be longer if appropriate. Anything shorter
is too superficial and anything much longer gets too time consuming to read
What should you call your scenario?
Some cleaver name to signify the meaning and
new thinking. It should be short and meaningful.
Where can I get more information if I am really excited about learning more
on scenarios?
There is a good
bibliography organized by the Global Business Network.