-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
There
are only a few essential steps for a basic futures study. You can get the broader
picture with more building blocks represented on the big
picture page.
Paradigms
Paradigms are the "unwritten
rules of change", they form the backdrop for everything else. For example,
the "cold war" was a paradigm - there was no formal statement on
how it would influence many sectors of the economy, but it clearly had some
influences. What are the next paradigms and how will the shift affect your
study? More information on paradigms is
available.
Trends and driving forces
Collecting individual
trends and grouping them into a few (4-6 or so) driving forces (e.g., economy,
social/political, technological) allows you to get a good impressing where
we are heading if current conditions continue. More information on driving
forces is available.
Wildcards and uncertainty
To do any study of this
type, you need to know your assumptions (and they should be stated). You need
to know what you don't know that is important, and find more information about
those topics. You need to recognize the uncertainty that exists, especially
if you go very far into the future. And you should expect wildcards to occur
(unexpected events that could have a big impact). A recent example was the
terrorist event on the World Trade Center. More information on uncertainty
and change is available.