Scenarios, Foresight and Change

-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

While thinking about visions and scenarios, you also need to review long term or recent history (which ever is most relevant) and the basic changes under way. Paradigm shifts and driving forces of change and and the change process itself are fundamental to this understanding. Visions and scenarios help you understand the future. Foresight allows you to operationalize all this into an effective way to essentially"anticipate the future".

Tutorial on Building Scenarios

Presents the essential steps in building scenarios and reviews options for simple or complex scenario building.

 

  Scenarios (examples of different approaches and results)

Institute for Alternative Futures (Future of Genomics and Society Using Scenarios)

Air Force 2025 Final Report

Scenarios (Global Business Network)

Scenarios Europe 2010 (Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission)

Looking Forward: A web resource for foresight in government (scenarios page)

National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future

Morrison Institute, Arizona State University (See current research and publications)

Shell Oil (also read scenario speeches - lower right of page).

Future Studio (Lists of a large number of scenarios and techniques for building them; allso includes information on foresight)

Wikipedia on Scenario Planning (Examples and methods)

 

  Foresight

Foresight allows you to take a basic understanding of future possibilities and incorporate it into your normal work efforts. .

 

  Visions (what we want to be)

The Global Ideas Bank

Vision for 2020 on Food and Environment

 

  Values (our basic principles for taking actions)

New Civilization Network

Values Systems - values of leaders

Continuous Quality Improvement (American Society for Quality)

 

  Understanding history

Know the past before you try to learn about the future.

 

  Ignorance

Understanding what you don't know is essential.

 

  Change

Understanding past change is helpful for anticipating future change.

 

  Strategic Planning

Scenario development is improved by using a variety of futures techniques or strategic planning approaches.