-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
Over
almost 30 years of working with futures activities I have my own observations
of what might be useful. However, everyone is different and faced with different
situations, so these may or may not be helpful to you. The first entry is a brief
review of what others have learned about studying the future.
Disclaimer: All of us have "learned" about futures studies in different
ways, we come from different disciplines or exposures throught life, and therefore
a list of this type is highly dependent on who does the writing.
There is a lot of wisdom
around and some experienced futurists have summarized their views. This review
is summary of comments by Roy Amara, Don Michael, Michael Marien, Joseph Coates
and Jennifer Jarrett. These observations are made in the late 1980s and are
still relevant. There is also a good summary by Jim Dator "The
Future Lies Behind!: Thirty years of teaching futures studies."
Understanding Best Practices
Many organizations use
'best practices' to improve their organization or products. These can vary
from methods of dealing with employees to improving the product to customer
relations. Often it is the professional association (or a regulatory agency)
that helps develop these practices so they can be applied in the organization.
Understanding best practices helps you understand where the subject at hand
might be heading and that knowledge gives you an advantage over others. Look
over some examples of best practices.
Making change happen
Change is perceived as
good (if it moves in the direction you want or benefit from) or bad (it goes
against your values or you are harmed by the change. Change is always happening
and when it is incremental and not affecting you individually, you hardly
know it is happening. When it is abrupt and unanticipated it is difficult
to deal with. By understanding the change process and learning how to deal
with it, change can be used to your advantage. In many cases, dealing with
the future will require some 'change' and therefore you need to have the skills
of a change agent as part of your futures techniques toolbox. Two good sources
of change information are below, and you can also review the change
section of this class.
Most of us must deal
with norms, although some serve the role of lightening rod, gadfly, provocateur,
or visionary. When we deal with norms, we tend not to get too far outside
the peer groups we deal with (examples are people at your organizational level
in your organization, members of your professional or other organizations,
or your family and friends. It is not uncommon for a new idea to disappear,
simply because it has not been 'officially' endorsed by the peer group. This
process also reduces risk - if others have tried it or agree to it, then you
may not be criticized for implementing it. Learn how to cultivate and work
with your peer groups so you can venture outside the bounds a bit and be accepted
for this behavior. All organizations have some people that do this.
Getting buy-in and making your case
Work with your intended
audience throughout the project. This is especially true if it is you are
doing an internal study for your own organization. Defining the project appropriately
and with interaction with the intended audiences, as well as how you present
your futures study, are nearly as important as the study itself. You need
to consider the audience, and condition them in advance for the potential
results, use examples and references that are relevant to the audience, and
allow them some level of participation, preferably at key point over a time
period (e.g., helping set the study parameters, brainstorming possible options,
identifying barriers or wildcards), and present them with some options to
allow their own decision making function to perform (rather than prescribing
a single recommendation).
Recognize ideas or solutions recycle over time
Timing is important.
Many new ideas can be traced to the past, but because of societal values or
views, political or economic realities, or technological capabilities, they
were not possible to implement in that distant time. Now the time might be
right, or the idea/solution might be slightly modified and applied. So, read
history and understand how things are done in different settings.
Keep yourself tuned up on studying the future by continually learnign to look
at questions through perspectives. Such as: