   Summer Weather Forecast - April 25, 2007 Jeff Schalau, Associate Agent, Agriculture & Natural Resources, Arizona Cooperative Extension, Yavapai County According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, drought conditions are expected to persist or intensify in most of Arizona through June. This prediction is fueled by our lack of winter precipitation and above-average temperatures this spring. This unpleasant forecast should motivate each of us to conserve water and take other steps to mitigate potentially negative affects. Below I have included some more detailed information and some suggestions for those that would like to take steps to mitigate their vulnerability to drought. North central Arizona, including most of Yavapai County, has a 60.0 to 69.9% chance of above normal temperatures through September 2007. Given that these are probabilities, there is a slight chance for normal and an even slimmer chance for below normal temperatures. This forecast does not try to predict the magnitude of temperature increase. The “normal” temperatures which scientists compare to are from a 30 year average between the years of 1971 and 2000. The precipitation outlook for Yavapai County through September 2007 forecasts equal chances (33.3% each) for above average, average, and below average precipitation. This is probably related to lack of long-term predictors for summer rainfall in areas that receive “monsoonal” rainfall. Climate scientists have a reasonable understanding of the big picture, but lack the specific information to forecast summer rains in our area. The other fact to remember is that what we call our “summer monsoon” is primarily a Mexican phenomenon. In Arizona, the most pronounced monsoon effect is in the southeastern portion of the state. However, because of the moisture in the air masses moving north, we often receive some summer precipitation. Warm temperatures expected through the spring after an early and sudden snowmelt late this winter increase wildfire risk in southwestern forest and woodlands. In the beginning of March, most of the Arizona high country had 70–95% of average snowpack for the late winter. However, near record warmth in the Southwest during the first half of March significantly reduced snowpack to 10–70% of average in Arizona. Last year’s abundant monsoon precipitation (130–200 percent of average in many locations in Arizona and New Mexico) has increased the density of grasses and forbs. Most of this vegetation remains as dried, easily combustible fuel. For more information, about climate forecasts and drought, consult the Southwest Climate Outlook at: www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts.html. With our summer rains, we also receive lightning. Lightning strikes often occur without significant precipitation leading to wildland fires. Outdoor recreation also increases during the summer. All this is to say that we are facing a potentially dangerous summer fire season in the coming months. If you would like to know more about reducing wildfire risks near your home and on your property, then you can learn how to create wildfire defensible space and fire resistive landscaping through publications on our web site at: cals.arizona.edu/yavapai/anr/defspace/. Conserving water in your landscape should also be considered. This can be accomplished in a variety of ways. Turf areas can buffer high temperatures, but are often excessive. Consider reducing the size of your lawn and replacing it with drought tolerant landscaping. If you have automatic sprinklers, adjust the irrigation schedule to apply the correct amount with an appropriate frequency. Use mulches to reduce evaporation from the soil surface and cool plant roots. These xeriscape principles will likely save you water and may create a more interesting and diverse home landscape. In addition, many drought tolerant plants are also fire resistive. I’d also like to continue encouraging readers of this column to become citizen scientists and report precipitation measurements to rainlog.org. Rainlog.org is a web-based cooperative rainfall monitoring network for Arizona. Data collected through this network is used for a variety of applications, from watershed management activities to drought planning at local, county, and state levels. High quality rain gauges are available on the web site for $13. It’s fun to compare your precipitation data with others. The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension has publications and information on gardening and pest control. If you have other gardening questions, call the Master Gardener line in the Cottonwood office at 646-9113 ext. 14 or E-mail us at cottonwoodmg@yahoo.com and be sure to include your address and phone number. Find past Backyard Gardener columns or submit column ideas at the Backyard Gardener web site: http://cals.arizona.edu/yavapai/anr/hort/byg/. |