Transformation Info - Possible Worlds - Scenarios
-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

Well, this is what we are trying to find out! This is the opposite of where we are in the "current world". These possible future worlds will often be presented as several scenarios (often 4 to give diversity but avoid the three way split of optimistic-pessimistic-realistic). Building scenarios allows you to bring in may different possible futures, weave these differences into a story or image, and place an interesting name on it (names are important as they send signals to the reader regarding your own viewpoint).

Scenarios are very useful when uncertainty is high, the number of possible options or directions is large, and where timeframes are such that extrapolating data becomes risky.

Why use scenarios? They allow you to better understand possible future unknown events. If you can think through the complexity of the scenario you can do better by thinking "on your feet" about unexpected events. In short, it gives you more thinking skills to move into uncharted territory.  

What information do you need to build a scenario? Lots of different information that includes the driving forces of change, the character of the institution, and trend information. In addition, you need possible events and wildcards not just extrapolations.   More information is available on scenarios.

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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell