Talking Points for Transformation Talk

-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

1. The Big Picture

Major eras or societal transition points

Movement between eras vs living within an era

Consider the "dominant" era but not to the exclusion of others (past or future)

Conclusion: a little foresight can go a long way

 

2. The Little Picture

Near tern experiences, concerns and pressures often prevent looking at the big picture

Know the difference between rearranging chairs on the Titanic deck and looking for icebergs

Changing one step at a time

 

3. Ordinary Change vs Transformational Change

Incremental change often follows (modified) extrapolation of past experiences with old habits

Knowing what you don't know is helpful and asking the right questions is essential

 

4. What are some of the new rules (aka paradigm shifts)?

Personalization (some call this mass customization)

Values and lifestyles (e.g., are today's problems solved by getting back our old values)

Globalization and communication make everyone a neighbor

 

5. What are some of the driving forces of the major changes underway

Science and Technology (e.g., genetic engineering, information technology, materials)

Population changes and demographic shifts (worldwide)

Political, social, and economic considerations

 

6. Some discoveries/inventions that will have intended but mostly unintended consequences.

1837 Telegraph, 1893 Aspirin, 1928 Penicillin, 1938 DDT (banned in US 1972), 1943 Parathion

1977 Personal Computer, 1979 Bar Code, 1980 Global Positioning Satellite

1980 Post-its, 1989 Berlin Wall fell, 1993 World Wide Web (via first graphics browser)

1993 Sheep Cloned, 1993 First fully computer designed airplane (Boeing 777)

 

7. A toolbox for the future - develop comfort in several areas

Chaos, complexity, simplicity (all are related)

Uncertainty and flexibility, ignorance and knowledge

Vision, foresight and anticipatory perspectives

Creative thinking (including pondering and other "informal" activities)Scenario development and strategic thinking (rather than strategic planning)

 

8. Some thoughts about transforming higher education

Learning: personalized, just in time, any place, any time, any method

Competition, institutional inertia, costs

Traditions and values, fundamental knowledge development and transfer, unique role in society

Who will lead (or force) a transformation - educators, politicians, business, parents, students?

What are the ingredients of a scenario or two about the future of higher education?

 

9. Some cautions and barriers

Watch out for simplistic solutions or management fads

Groupthink (reinforce each other's biases) is not group intelligence (build on other's knowledge)

Avoid extrapolations of the past during times of major transition

 

10. Bottom line

We are within a major transition period that probably started in late 1970s and could go until 2015-20

The rate and magnitude of change, and the higher order impacts of the change, are unprecedented

All societal components will be impacted; solutions will lag old and new problems

A context for thinking about the future is as simple as using the Enterprise rather than the Mayflower

My approach: following the presentation there is plenty of time for questions. This outline is provided for the class to take notes; slides were not used. I may includ a reference sheet for further reading.