-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
INTRODUCTION
There is no one right
way to understand and approach futures studies. It is not a specific discipline,
but draws from a diverse set of subjects. Accordingly, there are a number
of approaches that one can take to become a practical "futurist".
This roadmap is based on my perspectives and other approaches may fit better
with your particular needs. However, this is a starting point for you to develop
your own techniques.
Studying the future has
a long history. Its popularity has varied over the years and it is currently
in a growth mode. This is probably due to 1) interest in the new 21st century,
and 2) a recognition the world is likely to undergo some profound changes
in the next few decades. Since it would be useful to think about what those
changes might be, how they might affect us, and how we might therefore change
our lives, we ought to take advantage of understanding something about what
might happen.
Why Study the Future?
World conditions are
changing markedly; simple extrapolations of the past are inappropriate.
Early warnings exist for transitions to new worlds; it is hard to
find them unless you look for them. Understanding history and change helps
understand discontinuities and future possibilities.
What does futures
studies really mean?
Futures studies
is usually not a formal field
Thinking about
the future is useful for today's choices
Recognizing that
trends can be modified allows one to do something about them
The "mindset"
is important; beware of hidden biases and group think
It is more than
forecasting, predicting, or palm reading
Using a toolbox
of techniques to do these things is "future studies"
What do futurists
do and what are they like?
Anticipate change
and react to it.
Part historian,
part scientist, part feet on ground part feet in air.
Interest in a
broad range of subjects, some curiosity, and a sense of the "big picture"
Mostly integrator
with sense of the whole and comfortable with uncertainty.
Approaches
differ, most are closet futurists but more becoming full time.
OVERVIEW OF TOOLS AND
APPROACHES
General Approach to
Developing a Futures Study
There is too much uncertainty
and potentially new happenings to be give a set of guidelines that fit all
situations. Generally, it is better to define larger scale frameworks and
allow for specific choices closer to the time in question. A specific approach
might include:
Develop anticipatory
skills and maintain awareness of current and potential changes
Know what to look
for and separating important events from noise
Use a radar approach
rather than a vacuum cleaner approach to data gathering
Know what tools
are available and when to use them and when not to use them
Prepare to react
early to new changes while allowing for flexibility for error as more is learned
Don't place undue
trust in experts or in non-experts (or yourself)
Watch out for
the bandwagon effect (safety in numbers ) or group think (fear of standing
out)
Be wary of unstated
assumptions or simplistic statements; the seemingly obvious may not be right
Implement foresight
knowledge into your daily activities so you become an automated futurist
Be sure to complete a
broad based evaluation of information sources. Take advantage of electronic
searching techniques where multiple keys and multiple sources can be scanned
rapidly. Such multiple sources are essential, and should include common and
uncommon materials (e.g., standard journals, government documents, foundation
and association reports, and personal interviews). Be sure the multiple sources
also provide multiple viewpoints and perspectives. Recognize that many topics
(e.g., problems, issues, policies) are not totally new. They may re-occur
in different contexts, combine ingredients in a different manner, or build
a series of seemingly unrelated events into a new topic. Accordingly, it is
worth the effort to find what has been done in the past to better understand
what might occur in the future.
Specific Steps for
a Typical Futures
Identify a few
paradigm shifts to form the overall framework
List 5-7 driving
forces of change and their associated trends
Identify a series
of assumptions and cautionary statements
Understand the
extreme perspectives on a particular issue and why they exist
Develop four scenarios
to represent a range of options and describe their implications Identify important
values and conditions that are critical for all scenarios
List questions
which should be asked today in view of the scenario results
Repeat the cycle
to better understand the assumptions/choices
Developing Your Anticipatory
Skills
Knowing what to
look for and separating important events from noise
Knowing what tools
are available and when to use them
Reacting early
to new changes while allowing for flexibility for error
Don't place undue
trust in experts or in non-experts
Involve others
at early stages and keep an open mind
IMPLEMENTING FORESIGHT
INTO YOUR DAILY ACTIVITIES
What is in the toolbox
of techniques?
It is more than
forecasting, predicting, or palm reading.
Tools are drawn
from many disciplines - pick the ones that fit the job at hand.
Examples: context
setting research, assessments, possible wild cards, trend and scenario analysis.
Analyzing and Reporting
Knowledge is not valuable
unless put to use. Appropriate analysis must be made so it will withstand
criticism, as some of the conclusions will surely be difficult for some to
accept. If you are to influence others, your analysis must fit accepted norms
for format and key ingredients, but could include unconventional approaches
or conclusions. A report should be clear and concise, in the format of the
intended audience, and address only the relevant issues. Avoid collecting
and using more data than are necessary. Specific report content should include:
A clear statement
of the problem or topic, so all readers know what to expect with further reading.
All relevant assumptions
should be stated. Without this background, readers will try to develop their
own assumptions, and they may be counter to the ones you made.
Identify relevant
facts (data) or beliefs (viewpoints). This will serve as the basis of further
discussion and is a key element in the report.
Identity alternative
explanations or options, depending on the type of report and based on the
facts and beliefs just stated.
Identify any uncertainties
that might affect your alternatives if additional information were available.
Often the uncertainties are key, as they represent areas of fruitful and justifiable
exploration (particularly the low probability-high impact options).
Make conclusions.
These might be specific or general, statements or recommendations, or a short
statement to serve as a report summary.
Maintaining Awareness
Identify a few people
you consider responsible futurists in subject areas you feel relevant; pick
them for their varied perspectives about the subjects, and follow some of
their writings. Select several information sources to read on a continuing
basis. These should be chosen to give different perspectives, and provide
a range of subjects, but remain relevant to your general areas of interest.
Be alert to the general areas of agreement/disagreement so you can selectively
follow topics where debate is essential vs. those where general information
is sufficient.
Implementing Your
Results
Dealing with inertia
is not easy. The "present" is a significant influence on how things
might shift in the future. This institutional inertia is good when it damps
change to be within the realm of human acceptance. It is bad when it unnecessarily
holds back "appropriate" change. It can be caused by people wanting
to retain familiarity with the known, fear of the unknown, or relative gains/losses
by some key players. Understanding the institutional structure and its incentives
for change will affect how change can be accomplished
UNDERSTANDING ROLE OF
CHANGE
Understanding the basics
of change helps group more specific changes and provides some rationale on
how people approach change. Often change is not incremental (slow and predictable
change), and that is why you need approaches that involve techniques other
than simple (or even modified trend analysis) extrapolation. Uncertainty and
flexibility may become watchwords for navigating this change. Those who can
deal with ambiguity and can remain flexible in possible reactions to change
will be at an advantage.
Paradigm Shifts and
Driving Forces
Paradigm shifts
are the few big background issues that help us under shifts. Identifying
them is not always easy, but understanding their role is important. A paradigm
shift is like an unwritten rule, for example, the shift from the cold war
period to the post cold war period represented a paradigm shift. Knowing which
one exist at the time (or even better, what paradigm shifts are emerging)
allows you to function well. In addition to paradigm shifts, is it is useful
to list the key driving forces (e.g., information technology, demographic
shifts) that force change to occur.
Understanding
the period of time you live in, and peoples REAL values helps in this regard
understand how people will accept change.
It is often said
we are in the "post industrial age". This could be, but recognize
that these large shifts between eras have several present at one time while
one may be dominant. My perspective is that we have moved through several
eras over centuries from hunter/gatherer to agricultural to industrial to
service to information to self esteem ages, where all are present and no single
one might really be dominant. Understanding there is no dominant "age"
we live in but rather a combination of "ages" helps give context
and avoids simplistic solutions for complex settings. For example, a homeless
person might be classified as a hunter/gather in modern times.
We are in a special
time period. The likely change is so immense that in 20 or so years it will
be hard to recognize many of today's patterns or institutional arrangements.
How you perceive this change phenomenon sets the stage for everything else.
In short, don't spend time rearranging chairs on the Titanic deck when you
should be watching for icebergs and heeding early warning signals of the explorers
looking ahead.
Everyone has biases.
You need to determine yours and learn to compensate for them. People tend
to see the world through filters (like colored glasses). These filters have
developed from early background (values and beliefs as well as experiences),
everyday exposures to events and friends/colleagues, and diversity of reading
and experience.
Experts can be
wrong (but they are still worth reading). A diversity of viewpoints is necessary
to understand a subject. Experts may be biased, be too close to details such
that they don't see the whole picture, or not ask the relevant question.
Data can be misused.
Generally speaking, there is a lot of data and it is useful. However, much
of the data was collected with a specific purpose in mind and the context
of collection/limitations was understood. There are times when the data are
then used for other purposes, by people that do not understand (or know about)
the original constraints. Possible misuse of data is more likely in futures
settings, as more of the uses were unanticipated during data development stage.
The futurist is
vulnerable. People do not like to hear bad news, and often any adequate analysis
contains some bad news. How this is worded and explained is essential to making
the important points rather than simply causing emotional avoidance of the
issues. A related caution is that the more senior the person in an organization,
the more likely they are to "have their own network" of information
about changes.
Many organizations
suffer from groupthink, where the participants are from the same
background, think alike, and make the same assumptions. When they reach a
conclusion everyone is comfortable. But they could be wrong.
CONCLUSIONS
It is difficult to see
change when one is a part of it. The ability to look at the issues from an
entirely new perspective is needed to identify hidden biases and new approaches.
Recognizing selected driving forces allows one to operate on the RADAR principle
- keep alert but don't spend all your time looking for details.
Being aware of multiple
perspectives places you in a position to not only know the subject but to
be at a competitive advantage of many other players in the process; having
this overall perspective and understanding if the REAL parameters under discussion
is rare.
Know your information
sources. When detailed studies are necessary, they can come with little warning.
Familiarity with techniques of information gathering (library related, special
sources, or other people) can be put to use immediately.
A PRACTICAL CHECKLIST
FOR LEARNING ABOUT THE FUTURE
Maintain awareness
(understand driving forces, identify major information sources)
Use the radar
approach rather than the vacuum cleaner approach for date gathering
Research an issue
from multiple perspectives and review existing knowledge
Allow for uncertainties
(wildcards) and understand (and state) key assumptions effect (group think
or mob rule)
Be wary of unstated
assumptions or simplistic statements Recognize that the obvious may not always
be right
Always allow for
unanticipated events and be prepared for the consequences