1. The Age of Discontinuity:
Guidelines to Our Changing Society, Peter Drucker, Harper & Row, 1969/1978,
402 pages.
The original book was published
in 1969, and an updated preface was added in the 1978 edition, noting the earlier
comments were basically still relevant. The main theme is that the continuity
of the old trends or issues for social and cultural changes were ending. The
book does not "forecast", but looks at the major changes occurring
in the foundations that will affect changes. He identifies 4 discontinuities:
Rapid emergence
of new technologies and resulting new industries
Emergence on world
economy - where role of developed and developing countries take on the role
of class conflicts of a national economy
Emergence of new
pluralism of institutions that obsoletes traditional theories (and generally
accepted) of government and society
Emergence of knowledge
as the new capital and the central resource of an economy - including the new
power centers that will develop for those who have the knowledge
He further states that
the dynamics of population changes are different in three major sections of
the world (developed countries of industrialized world, developed countries
of the Soviet Bloc, and the developing countries of the third world. The "age
of discontinuity" is not a pessimistic situation, it provides ample opportunities
for new actions, so it really is an "age of opportunity".
2. Being Digital. Nicholas,
Negroponte. Alfred Knopf. 1995. 255.
A paperback updated from
of a series of brief articles for Wired Magazine. The theme is how the movement
from analog (current television and telephone) to digital (computers and many
other things) will have a massive impact on society. He weaves some history
of the relevant technologies into how things could be very different in the
future. Digital is pervasive it will affect nearly everything. He ends
by noting the time for optimism is heremany previously competing groups/organizations
will find it to their advantage to cooperate (and the technology is here to
do that). He believes the real optimism is due to the empowering nature of being
digital, we can make incredible changes in the future that would have been unheard
of in the past.
3. Paradigms: The Business
of Discovering the Future, Barker, Joel. HarperCollins. 1993. 240 p.
One of the best sources
of information on paradigms - defining them, suggesting how they work, and providing
examples. He also identifies the most important paradigm shift of the 20th century
(quality matters) and provides the key characteristics of paradigms. Some of
his paradigm examples (based on trends he lists) for the 1990s (written in the
early 1990s but their relevance can now be seen in retrospect).
Solar/hydrogen/fission
Time taxes (trading
volunteer time for reduced tax burden)
Buffalo commons
(return land to its natural state)
Education K through
competence
Magical, mystical
polymers
Nature's wisdom
Negawatts (energy
efficiency pays off)
New building materials
Gaia
Fractals and chaos
mathematics
Personalized production
Masters and patrons
(the two are interdependent)
Virtual reality
4. The 500 Year Delta:
What Happens After What Comes Next 1997. Jim Taylor and Watts Wacker. Harper
Business. 302 p.
The introduction begins
"This is a book about the near-term and long-term future of business and
how business leaders must reposition themselves and rethink the arenas in which
they compete. It is a book about history and the direction for the future, about
the qualities and frames of mind that will sustain us ant hose we must jettison
if we hope to cope with what lies ahead. It is a book about taking the blinders
off, about seeing things whole and clear. But most of all, this is a book about
change, change so rapid and so massive that by centurys end it will have
swept away nearly the entire underpinnings of modern life." That is a pretty
good review of the book!. They address how known entities will be faced with
change (the organization, the economic rationale of today) and how they are
being replaces with new rules (values and connectivity, principles as directions,
communications and information sharing, and lifestyles). They provide a "rule
book" for the new chaotic world (e.g., wisdom of planning, preparing, managing,
setting at the top, and focus).
Return to "Anticipating
the Future" course home page
Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell